2018 WCQ: Initial Super 6 Points Table

[Kriterion_BD]

As close as this tournament has been so far - it will only get closer now the best 6 sides are remaining. Here's a look at initial NRR scenarios. Once the first round of games is played, cricinfo will have an updated table. Till then, I've done the hard yards and calculated it out for the benefit of discussion.

Super 6 Points Table

West Indies - 4 points, NRR +1.120
Scotland - 3 points, NRR +0.138
Zimbabwe - 3 points, NRR +0.020
Ireland - 2 points, NRR +1.809
Afghanistan - 0 points, NRR -0.154
UAE - 0 points, NRR -3.000

West Indies lead in terms of points, so as long as they don't slip up, they are golden. But how likely are they to not have a single bad day?
Ireland are well ahead in terms of NRR, but are 4th in terms of points. Still they are in a good position because they control their own fate.
Zimbabwe and Scotland are essentially in the same place. Just a hair's width difference between the two sides.
Afghanistan have essentially the same zero NRR as ZIM and SCO, but they have no points and have to run the table. Almost impossible.
UAE have no chance on either points or NRR.

[jaybro]

Ireland’s advantage is they don’t have to play the Windies again, but Afghanistan will be a tough game for them.

I think Ireland and Windies will beat Scotland who will likely beat UAE.

For Zimbabwe the Irish game really is the most important one if they win that they go a long way to booking their place in the World Cup, a loss though probably ends their chances ( same for Scotland )

Everyone is waiting for the Windies to have a bad day but I’m not sure if they will as long as the game they’re playing have some meaning, maybe once they know they’re home they might switch off. I’d rather play them last tbh

[jaybro]

Looking at the Super 6's fixtures

Thu Mar 15 21st Match, Super Sixes - Afghanistan v West Indies Harare Sports Club

Thu Mar 15 24th Match, Super Sixes - Scotland v United Arab Emirates Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo

Fri Mar 16 25th Match, Super Sixes - Zimbabwe v Ireland Harare Sports Club

Sun Mar 18 28th Match, Super Sixes - Ireland v Scotland Harare Sports Club

Mon Mar 19 29th Match, Super Sixes - Zimbabwe v West Indies Harare Sports Club

Tue Mar 20 30th Match, Super Sixes - Afghanistan v United Arab Emirates Harare Sports Club

Wed Mar 21 31st Match, Super Sixes - Scotland v West Indies Harare Sports Club

Thu Mar 22 32nd Match, Super Sixes - Zimbabwe v United Arab Emirates Old Hararians, Harare

Fri Mar 23 33rd Match, Super Sixes - Afghanistan v Ireland Harare Sports Club

I may be over-analysing this but I feel the remaining fixtures aren't favourable to us for the following reasons

The Afg v WI game is lose lose for us IMO because if Afghanistan lose they will know they're out so they're unlikely to play with 100% commitment in the final game v Ireland which is a game we need them to win. Also if Windies lose they'll know their next game v Zimbabwe is a must win for them so no chance of them not 'turning up'.

Scotland having the UAE first means a win there and they will know they have two shots at securing a spot with games against Windies & Ireland to come, playing Windies last means they get the game where it is most likely the Windies have already booked 1 spot so there for are more likely to 'not turn up'.

Ireland will likely bank on Afghanistan already being eliminated by the time they play the final match so again Afghanistan will likely 'not turn up' or at least won't be playing with the same intensity.

As for Zimbabwe we play the Irish first up which will be intense no matter where this match fell and will then follow by playing the Windies who will likely be looking for 1 final win to book their spot, finishing with the UAE who will likely be eliminated by then doesn't give us much advantage as this game was already a 'banker'.

Scotland have the better draw IMO and just looking at the way the fixtures have fallen it is hasn't done us any favours.

[Zero76]

I suspect the winner of the Zim V Ire game has the best chance of going through, the Windies should be more or less home and hosed. Scotland have been the surprise package of the tournament, but I can't see them defeating Ireland tbh

[firebreaker]

ICC is so fucked up we don't even know which teams are playing on 15th and further on that 22 two matches are being played on the same ground

[Kriterion_BD]

The Afghans and the Irish play with fire. They will come hard at every team just because the only team they don't mind losing to here will be West Indies. But they will come just as hard if not harder at the Windies because thats their ticket to glory. This tournament - and even the WCL Division 2 leading up to it - are arguably even more cut throat than the actual World Cup next year. The next WC will hopefully be a ruthless competition given the format (extended group phase, semifinals, final). Little to no room for error. Best format in my opinion. The 6 and 7 team groups we've had since 1996 actually allow for 2-3 "easy" games that usually end up as bad mismatches.

[Googly]

There seems to be a lot of animosity developing between Afghanistan and Zimbabwe.
What happens if the Afghans are out early and we need them to win against Ireland on the 23rd?

[TapsC]

There seems to be a lot of animosity developing between Afghanistan and Zimbabwe.
What happens if the Afghans are out early and we need them to win against Ireland on the 23rd?

You think they could throw a game? Hmmm. Yes I have noticed there is tension.

For me our fixture list is tough but I think we will beat one of the West Indies or Ireland. So it might actually be in our best interests to just them out the way. Another scenario where we can qualify even if we lose both big games like Dogg just pointed out in another thread will need us to absolutely hammer the UAE so playing them last will work in our advantage as we will know this. Scotland are looking really dangerous. Wouldn't rule them out just yet.

Home advantage seems to be working well too. I think the pressure of the crowd is huge and has helped us in those 2 tight games. Imagine being a number 11 on strike with thousands of people against you. You can feel that tension

[Kriterion_BD]

There seems to be a lot of animosity developing between Afghanistan and Zimbabwe.
What happens if the Afghans are out early and we need them to win against Ireland on the 23rd?

Theres beef between the Irish and the ZIM fans too. Accusations of Irish being overly arrogant (I don't agree). I think the Irish have always been confident and felt that if ZIM and BD have Test they should too. The Afghans on the other hand are overly cocky as every other Asian side, barring Sri Lanka. Looks like the Nepalis are the same way.

There was never any significant beef between BD and ZIM, was there? And that was an intense rivalry for almost a decade circa 2005-2013.

[TapsC]

There seems to be a lot of animosity developing between Afghanistan and Zimbabwe.
What happens if the Afghans are out early and we need them to win against Ireland on the 23rd?

Theres beef between the Irish and the ZIM fans too. Accusations of Irish being overly arrogant (I don't agree). I think the Irish have always been confident and felt that if ZIM and BD have Test they should too. The Afghans on the other hand are overly cocky as every other Asian side, barring Sri Lanka. Looks like the Nepalis are the same way.

There was never any significant beef between BD and ZIM, was there? And that was an intense rivalry for almost a decade circa 2005-2013.

I remember the one time Tamim described our bowling attack of Vitori Jarvis and Chatara as very ordinary that created a bit of tension but I would say it's been ok overall. I think it will come back when Bangladesh goes down to Zim as they will be expected to win but it won't be as easy if we play in seam friendly conditions. Wasn't Mushfiqur once fired from the captain's position after a Zim tour?