Bangladesh Watch 2015-2019

[Kriterion_BD]

Congrats to BD! A good win, and a team well and truly on the rise.

Two Test wins in the last 6 months really puts us in a good position overall. As I stated 2 years back, we have officially stepped out of the minnow zone.

Not so fast
BD is playing good cricket for sure, but there's still the perception that BD is a minnow country. I think BD can officially say they've shed the tag when the casual cricket follower treats BD with as much respect as - hopefully - opposition teams are starting to now. And that will happen when BD wins away in Australia, England and South Africa and has players that are genuinely feared. And when BD is able to market its star players by getting a batsman in the same breath as Kohli, Root, etc... a bowler in the same breath as Steyn, Starc, etc.

Once the casual cricket fan - by this I mean the guy who flicks on Channel 9 every summer to see the Test match, knows a few foreign player names and will chat about the score at work but doesn't log on to Cricinfo to analyse scorecards like we do - knows that not only is Bangladesh a cricket playing country, but a decent one at that... will the minnow tag be shed. Just as it was for Sri Lanka about 20 years ago.

First of all, thanks to you and all the other ZCFers who have supported BD over the years (except for against ZIM of course). There were many tough days and nights as losses mounted, one after the other.

More to your post though, BD won't be winning in AUS/ENG/SA for at least a few more years. Not on a greentop with pace and bounce at least. If we do that, we'll be the best team in the world or close enough ie in the very top bracket. Thats not "non minnow".

Non-minnow doesn't mean you're a world beater. It just means you're a team that CAN win any given match in most conditions or a few conditions. It just means you're a competitive side, not necessarily the best team in the world. If you win the World Cup, you can say you're definitely one of the top 3-4 sides in the world regardless of your rank. If you win a Test in AUS/ENG/SA/IND you can say you're one of the top 3-4 teams in Tests.

Bangladesh are a long way off from that. The present generation of cricketers will almost certainly not be able to scale that mountain. If they did, that would probably be the biggest sporting achievement in history.

Sri Lanka at their peak are still ahead of us for 2 main reasons:

1) World Cup wins
2) players of ATG status (Murali, Sanga)

I do think Bangladesh in the next 10 years can achieve both of those, operative word being "can".

But SL have never been even close to the #1 side in Tests. Starting from the 1950s (when you had 7 sides so that #1 actually has a meaning) I don't know how many sides would have achieved that tag. NZ and India were pretty mediocre, so they are out. Pakistan was decent. SL have never been #1. West Indies obviously did starting around the 1970s through to the 1990s before Australia took over. Pakistan very briefly peaked in the early 1990s.

As far as casual fans goes, I'm not sure thats the best measure. Firstly, its hard to quantify/analyze unless you polled 1000 random casual fans in various countries. Secondly, I think in any field its expert or educated opinion that should count. Can fans can be a measure, but its not a good measure. A second issue is, the casual fan approach automatically handicaps Bangladesh due to how poor we were for a very long time. We were significantly worse than Ireland and Afghanistan are now, and they aren't very good sides to put it politely.

I don't think you will find a pundit now who doesn't think Bangladesh can bloody some noses. Of course not on a fast greentop, but then India are still expected to be rolled over in those conditions, just as Australia were expected to get rolled on the turners in India as recently as 1 month ago.

We have a ways to go to catch up with our SC neighbors:
http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine ... ;type=team

Pakistan well in front, India signficantly ahead of SL in terms of W-L ratios. But if we win just 3 of our next 20 games in those countries, our W-L ratio will catch up to SL's.

So if non-minnow is to be defined as "generally competing with the 8 established sides in a specific format" then Bangladesh got there a few years ago in ODIs and just now in Tests. If it means "able to beat the top 3-4 sides, in their [alien] conditions" then we are still a good distance away. In fact, judging how well AUS/ENG/SA/NZ/WI have performed in IND/PAK/SL historically...it can be argued that even India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are still "minnow nations" which is why that definition is, in my opinion, functionally ridiculous.
http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine ... ;type=team

Australia, England, South Africa, and West Indies all have W-L ratios of 0.65 or better in the Subcontinent.

By contrast the best SC team in those countries is Pakistan with a W-L ratio of just 0.30. Their worst (NZ at 0.22), is almost as good as our best.

But this has another interesting and overlooked implication: it is easier for non-Asian teams to adapt to Asian conditions than it is for Asian teams to adopt to non-Asian ones! In other words, Zimbabwe could be expected to cope better in Bangladesh than Bangladesh coping in Zimbabwe.

[Kriterion_BD]

Bangladesh are certainly moving beyond minnow status, but winning tests against India, England, New Zealand, and Australia will officially change that. Zimbabwe never got beyond minnow status, even after beating Pakistan in tests home and away. Beating SL in SL is a huge achievement though, no one ever finds it easy playing there, not even Australia.

Well for non-Asian sides its a relatively easier challenge to cope to Asian conditions, based on all time W-L records (please reference my post above). But perhaps the other factor was Zimbabwe never followed up after that win. For example, everyone hailed our win vs England as our "first win"...but if we had gotten to 2020 without winning another, people would regard it as a fluke, despite the 108 run margin. This win, away from home, losing the toss and batting last reinforces the notion that its not a fluke. Maybe England are just poor players of spin, especially away from home? But certainly Sri Lanka are playing on their turf and had won their 6 previous home Tests.

Another example. I bowl medium pace (probably around 70 mph at my fastest) and right arm off spin. Its theoretically possible that with one magic delivery I could dismiss Virat Kohli. One time in life. It doesn't mean I'm an international calibre bowler. It has to be reproduced, and not just once or even 5 times. I'd have to be able to bowl a couple hundred such magic balls in a 10 year time span to be considered merely a decent Test bowler. Otherwise, its just a fluke delivery. Highly unlikely, but not impossible.

Trends are important because they establish patterns and any intentional human endeavor inevitably follows a pattern. And these patterns or habits, can be broken to establish new and better patterns, but only after considerable labor and effort.

Bangladesh can be expected to beat any team barring India at home. And the likes of WI, SL, and probably even PAK away from home (I think we may have been robbed in Multan via a Rashid Latif claiming a dropped catch back in 2003). We have the capability of drawing in places like New Zealand and India as well if the wickets are flat enough.

[Jemisi]

Congrats BD!

[Kriterion_BD]

Thanks Jemisi...I will be writing a little preview for ZIM's tour and let you guys know exactly what to look out for!

[CrimsonAvenger]

I must accept, grudgingly, that BD is now stringing together test match after test match of admirable performances. This win should now rank as the best performance of BD in their cricketing history. Even beating that England win at home a few months back. SL is not the same SL of the Sanga-Mahela times, but at least there is Herath who is world class. They have beaten Aussies black and blue not so long ago at home, and India lost miserably to Herath's 7-for in 2015. Taking all of that into account, this is a great win for BD.

SL batting line up is full of people with flamboyance and bordering irresponsible at this moment. And others trying to answer for themselves as to whether they belong in top flight cricket. I used to despise Dilruwan Perera for holding up a youngster's spot, but his batting display on 4th and 5th days came as a pleasant surprise. He really dug in and showed great qualities with the "over-my-dead-body" attitude. If not for that ill judged run-out, he would have dug in even further and eaten up more time. Yes, he was lucky with an LBW decision going his way but boy did he fight hard. And Herath was using all his guile with the ball, but unfortunately the birthday boy did not have enough runs to defend.

Probably Liton Das for Kayes and Mosaddek batting higher up and there's the best XI for BD already!

[Kriterion_BD]

^Yes that is the XI that will take the field the next time, barring any injures. However the XI I'd like to see would be slightly different:

1. Tamim
2. Soumya
3. Mushfiq
4. Mominul
5. Mosaddek
6. Shakib
7. Nurul/Liton (WK)
8. Mehedi
9. Taijul/Roy
10. Taskin
11. Mustafiz

In seaming conditions Roy or a 3rd quick would come in for Taijul...but in the SC or WI probably better idea to play 3 spinners. Mehedi is on his way to becoming a genuine all-rounder...his first 3 innings yielded just 3 runs at an average of 1.00 but he's now pushed his average up to 14.5. We need 20+ from him, but I think he has the talent to average 30 at this level.

The two keepers we need to select the one who is the best overall as a keeper-bat. If they are of the same quality (Liton is very good), then I opt for Nurul because he's 6 feet tall and has the reach that Liton, who is only slightly taller than Mushy, doesn't have. With Taskin in the attack we need to stop as many of the 5 wides as we can.

Sabbir is very good, but unfortunately missed out as I think Mominul is just flat out better and more dependable than him. Sabbir was the unsung hero in this game tho.

[brmtaylor.com admin]

As far as casual fans goes, I'm not sure thats the best measure. Firstly, its hard to quantify/analyze unless you polled 1000 random casual fans in various countries. Secondly, I think in any field its expert or educated opinion that should count. Can fans can be a measure, but its not a good measure. A second issue is, the casual fan approach automatically handicaps Bangladesh due to how poor we were for a very long time. We were significantly worse than Ireland and Afghanistan are now, and they aren't very good sides to put it politely.

I don't think you will find a pundit now who doesn't think Bangladesh can bloody some noses. Of course not on a fast greentop, but then India are still expected to be rolled over in those conditions, just as Australia were expected to get rolled on the turners in India as recently as 1 month ago.

...

Australia, England, South Africa, and West Indies all have W-L ratios of 0.65 or better in the Subcontinent.

By contrast the best SC team in those countries is Pakistan with a W-L ratio of just 0.30. Their worst (NZ at 0.22), is almost as good as our best.

The casual cricket fan doesn't care about WL ratios, etc. They just know teams like Zimbabwe and Bangladesh are rubbish because that's what Warney and Junior and BJ and Tubby and whoever else is on commentary are telling them.

Bangladesh are a team on the up, but 1 or 2 Tests doesn't make them a non-minnow in the eyes of anyone except those following cricket really closely. Like I said, when they start beating teams away from home - top teams like England, Australia and South Africa because they produce the top-line journalists and commentators that can change the narrative - then the broader perception will change.

And as you mentioned, when some BD players get ATG status that will help change public perception too.

[Kriterion_BD]

But is the casual cricket fan even a fan? Philosophical question, lol.

For example, if you show up for a job interview with a blase attitude and say "I don't really know much about (insert industry name here), but I need to make rent this month..." you are most likely not going to be hired even if you have an Ivy League degree.

Another example is if a girl you're dating can only occaisionally recall your birthday, are you likely to want to put a ring on it? Probably not (well I would if she was really hot, lol). But you get the point.

The average American wouldn't able to name the most populous city of Australia or the capital of Australia. They wouldn't be able to do the same for Burkina Faso either. But that doesn't mean that Australia's global importance is the same as Burkina Faso.

For the record, the casual cricket fan, never rated Sri Lanka much either. The proof of that is that even hard core cricket fans aren't in agreement that an ATG like Murali was a chucker or not. Even hard core cricket fans under-rated Sanga, and failed to rate Mahela at all (MJ had a terrible record in alien conditions). The casual cricket fan would forget SL won the 1996 world cup by the time the 1999 world cup begins. SL and NZ have never been awarded the marquee 4 Test series that the other big dogs play. Sri Lanka have not ever won in Australia (in fact before last year they had only beaten Australia once anywhere, IIRC), and they have never won in India.

I used to be a hardcore football fan years ago...but I can't tell you the 2 teams that played in the 2016 Superbowl. No way a casual cricket fan will remember that Pakistan were lucky to make the 1992 finals, or that Jayasuriya and K--- (sp???) revolutionized the one day game back in 1996.

How that pertains to BD is not entirely certain:

On the one hand Bangladesh has a very poor record for a very long time to overcome. That may not even be possible. Its the equivalent of Vusi trying to get a Test average of 50 after 50 Tests.

On the other hand, Bangladesh has advantages that Sri Lanka don't...namely a large economy and a huge fanbase - things that increase marketability. In other words, Bangladesh is almost identical to Pakistan in terms of population (200 million vs 170), size of GDP, passionate fanbase, culture and ethos, etc. So if Pakistan can do it, Bangladesh can as well.

[Kriterion_BD]

Interesting discussions on PakPassion regarding Bangladesh:

http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/showt ... nnows-quot

And another:

http://www.pakpassion.net/ppforum/showt ... t-Pakistan

One of the things is when you can start to force a rethink from your harshest critics and detractors, you are stepping out of the "minnow" league.

[jaybro]

BD are doing so well now I'm happy for them, their supporters have been through years of being hammered it's nice to see them beat SL especially. Sri Lanka has always bullied BD it's good to see them get a test win against them ......