[Match Thread] Crocodile vs Chamisa, Zimbabwe Election Showdown 2018

[Googly]

We all want peace and prosperity for this great country of ours. It’s in absolute tatters at every level. Is it plausible that the ruling party will do the job, 38 years of misgovernance says not a snowball’s chance in hell, but maybe their hands were tied and they do have a plan and better intentions going forward. Maybe MDC would be no better or perhaps even worse. Maybe we do need a strongman to keep peace.
The indignity of African elections with all the violence and bloodshed is the way of our continent and is a steep price to pay.

[zimbos_05]

Theres two simple things. The opposition don't know how to be an opposition. They are too divided and desperate for power that they are not doing things in the right manner. One has to wonder if they have people advising them on their campaigns.

The second is that ZANU will never relinquish power. They have too much to lose by having to actually do some work. Corruption is the only way.

Africans (of all races) have been given an opportunity to have their own prosperous country, but there is no such thing as democracy. I've yet to see a post independence government actually do some good. We are essentially a military state.

[Googly]

They’ve just said they will make the announcement at 10pm. That’s to make sure most people are back at home.
Biti and Chamisa are adamant that they have won and they have no cause to lie, they have the V11 forms to prove it. I can’t imagine what ZEC/ZANU are going to come up with? Chamisa also alleged that they had been trying to get new forms re-signed but I can’t see them pulling that off.
I’m guessing that they haven’t disputed the parliamentary vote (and there’s much to dispute) because they feel they’ve got them dead to rights on this one.
I’m not sure what they’re hoping for?
It’s highly improbable that Chamisa will be announced the winner, there’s a slim chance they’ll declare that a run-off is required. That’s going to be a violent affair with only one outcome.
If they’re relying on the SADC and AU observers to declare that there has been manipulation I think they’re in for a long wait. Plus what do they do- declare it hasn’t been free and fair? And then what happens?
The real issue I think is how MDC and their supporters will accept an ED victory knowing that observers and neighboring countries will avert their eyes and shufffle their feet, so there’s no help from that quarter.
There’s another possible outcome and that’s some sort of deal being brokered for cabinet positions.
It would be good to know who really ordered the military onto the streets and who gave them live rounds instead of rubber bullets. Having watched the footage many times I saw a reluctance by most soldiers to fire. The SA, local and even overseas media is critical of MDC’s premature announcement, which is patently ridiculous and have less to say to ZANU’s decision to use military force to quell a civilian demonstration. If SA had to do this for every demonstration they would have shot close on a million people by now. Our demonstrations are love fests in comparison to what happens South of us.

[eugene]

One question, how fair is the spread of electorates in Zimbabwe? Can a party lose the popular vote by a significant margin and still win more electorates? Is gerrymandering rife? In the USA for example, Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million but won 30 states to Hillary's 20. More jarring is that Trump won 3,084 counties compared to Hillary's 57. I understand that the Presidential vote in Zimbabwe is purely popular vote, but presumably the parliamentary elections can produce odd outcomes?

[Googly]

There has been gerrymandering in the past, I’m not sure whether boundaries were changed for this election though. At the end of the day it all effectively comes down to the popular vote because there are so many rural electorates. It’s a huge problem and has been used effectively by Zanu from day 1. The urban areas are predominately the opposition. They are the guys that make up the white and blue collar workers, the businessmen and of course the disenfranchised people. They most acutely feel the lack of employment, they pay the taxes, read the papers and are up to speed with what’s going on. Most of the diaspora are folk that come from urban areas.
The rural folk are generally poorer, less well educated and many live subsistence type lives. They have traditionally been the Zanu voting stronghold. Without denigrating them they are easily manipulated. Food aid and agricultural inputs, and often the mere promise of it is enough to get their allegiance. They also take their lead from the area chiefs who all get looked after by Zanu.
There is expectation of them receiving more plots, more inputs, which is partly true, but whoever is in power needs to address their needs.
There has been massive rural to urban migration and many dispute the population figures in the rural areas, myself included.

[Googly]

The latest announcement is that security is being massively beefed up prior to the 10pm announcement.
That doesn’t sound too good for Chamisa.

[Googly]

With one province still to be announced ED is the clear winner. Let’s see the MDC reaction.

[eugene]

There has been gerrymandering in the past, I’m not sure whether boundaries were changed for this election though. At the end of the day it all effectively comes down to the popular vote because there are so many rural electorates. It’s a huge problem and has been used effectively by Zanu from day 1. The urban areas are predominately the opposition. They are the guys that make up the white and blue collar workers, the businessmen and of course the disenfranchised people. They most acutely feel the lack of employment, they pay the taxes, read the papers and are up to speed with what’s going on. Most of the diaspora are folk that come from urban areas.
The rural folk are generally poorer, less well educated and many live subsistence type lives. They have traditionally been the Zanu voting stronghold. Without denigrating them they are easily manipulated. Food aid and agricultural inputs, and often the mere promise of it is enough to get their allegiance. They also take their lead from the area chiefs who all get looked after by Zanu.
There is expectation of them receiving more plots, more inputs, which is partly true, but whoever is in power needs to address their needs.
There has been massive rural to urban migration and many dispute the population figures in the rural areas, myself included.

So does that means a large urban area with 500,000 people may only be allocated one or two electorates whereas there might be 10 rural electorates with only 100,000 people total? Or are the boundaries drawn to respect such population disparities?

[jaybro]

Well this has turned into a mess hasn't it

Thoughts and prayers to the families of the murdered people

[Kriterion_BD]

More jarring is that Trump won 3,084 counties compared to Hillary's 57. I understand that the Presidential vote in Zimbabwe is purely popular vote, but presumably the parliamentary elections can produce odd outcomes?

I think all of HRC's 57 counties would rank as the 10 largest counties in the US. LA, Maricopa, Cook, Kings, Queens, NY counties to name a few. Those 6 counties alone have almost 30 million people or about 9% of the US' total population!